# Conditions for intuitive expertise - A failure to disagree > A landmark paper written jointly by Daniel Kahneman of the HB (Heuristics and biases) school and Gary Klein of the NDM (Naturalistic decision making) school. Under what circumstances does expert intuition (Skilled intuition) develop and under what circumstances does it not develop? A landmark paper written jointly by of the HB () school and of the NDM () school. Under what circumstances does expert intuition () develop and under what circumstances does it not develop? https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19739881/ ## Abstract > This article reports on an effort to explore the differences between two approaches to intuition and expertise that are often viewed as conflicting: (HB) and (NDM). Starting from the obvious fact that expert intuition is sometimes marvelous and sometimes flawed, the authors attempt to map the boundary conditions that separate true intuitive skill from overconfident and biased impressions. They conclude that evaluating the likely quality of an intuitive judgment requires an assessment of the predictability of the environment in which the judgment is made and of the individual's opportunity to learn the regularities of that environment. Subjective experience is not a reliable indicator of judgment accuracy. ## Two Perspectives Origins of the Naturalistic Decision Making Approach - <1940s> Started with research on chess masters. Masters can quickly think of the optimal move, while average players cannot even consider the optimal move. Masters instantly recognize approximately 50,000 to 100,000 situations and immediately recall the optimal move. This requires more than ten years of practice. Based on these studies, the **NDM school defines expert intuition as the recognition of memorized patterns** - The core goal of the NDM school is to define "intuition." Utilizing the method, etc. Origins of the Heuristics and Biases Approach - Began with studies in medicine in the <1950s> comparing human judgment with statistical models. Humans made more errors than statistical models, attributed to systematic error. - According to various studies, including Tversky & Kahneman 1971, even renowned experts, including scholars who wrote statistics textbooks, made inaccurate statistical inferences in various real-world situations. → For Gigerenzer's to operate, problems must be solved in settings that allow it to do so. - Since then, consistent and diverse cases of intuition errors have been studied in various fields. ## Contrasts Between the Naturalistic Decision Making and Heuristics and Biases Approaches Stance Regarding Expertise and Decision Algorithms - There is no disagreement about the observed facts themselves. Experts' intuitive judgments are sometimes surprisingly correct, and sometimes very wrong. - However, there is a difference in judgment about the effectiveness of expert intuition. HB focuses on reasons why expert intuition cannot be trusted, while NDM focuses on successful expert intuition. Field vs. Laboratory - The HB school generally emphasizes controlled experiments in the laboratory. - The NDM school places emphasis on methods such as CTA and field observation. The Definition of Expertise - NDM School: Experts are those who are considered to be of the highest level by their peers in the field ([Operational definition](https://wiki.g15e.com/pages/Operational%20definition.txt)) - HB school: Judgment based on the level of performance compared to the highest level statistical model or algorithm. ## Source of Intuition Skilled Intuition as Recognition - It is important to distinguish System 1 (automatic) from System 2 (controlled, effortful) operation. - Both schools focus on System 1. The NDM school focuses on cases where System 1 improves through skill, and the HB school focuses on cases of errors in System 1. Imperfect Intuition vs. Professional Intuitions - Regularities in the environment - [Deliberate practice](https://wiki.g15e.com/en/pages/Deliberate%20practice.txt) ## Conclusions Under what circumstances can you trust your intuition? - There are situations in which intuition can be trusted (the focus of naturalistic decision making schools such as Gary Klein), and situations in which it is not (the focus of heuristics and bias schools such as Daniel Kahneman). - Even people with developed expert intuition are often unaware of the basis for their judgments (that is, they often make correct judgments unconsciously). This is even more likely to be the case for people who do not have developed expert intuition (i.e., they often unconsciously make inappropriate judgments and think of themselves as doing a good job). - True experts are good at recognizing when they don't know something. Nonexperts (including some who believe themselves to be experts) are not good at this. There is little relationship between the level of subjective confidence and actual expertise. - To determine whether an intuitive judgment can be trusted, one must look at the environment in which the judge made the judgment and whether the judge has had the opportunity to learn from the regularities of the environment. - A task environment in which there is a stable relationship between objectively identifiable cues and subsequent events, or between cues and the results of subsequent actions, has high validity. Representative fields include medicine and firefighting. Typical low-validity situations include predicting individual stock prices or making long-term predictions about political events. - Validity and uncertainty are compatible. In some situations, both validity and uncertainty are high. For example a poker game or a war situation. Although uncertainty is high, the best strategy can significantly increase the likelihood of success. - A high-validity environment is a necessary condition for the development of expert intuition. Another necessary condition is to sufficiently learn the environment through long-term training ([Deliberate practice](https://wiki.g15e.com/en/pages/Deliberate%20practice.txt)) in situations where quick and clear feedback is provided. When individuals with sufficient talent are placed in an environment that provides valid cues and quality feedback, expert intuition develops. - Although true expertise cannot develop in irregular or unpredictable environments, some people sometimes make successful judgments by chance. These "lucky" individuals become deluded and overconfident. There are many such cases in the financial industry. - Another category of overconfidence is when an expert in one field makes a judgment outside their field of expertise. Example: Even if an expert is good at judging whether a company will be commercially successful, it cannot be said that he or she will be good at judging whether the company's stock price is undervalued. It is not easy for experts themselves or those watching to judge how far expertise can be applied. - Developing algorithms that take advantage of the weak regularities that exists in low-validity environments can sometimes make better decisions than humans (HB). However, attempting to replace human judgment with such algorithms may be met with significant resistance and may have unwanted side effects (NDM).